There are two quick points to make, even before we set sail. In Politics Nigeriana, only about 5 per cent of defections can be explained to, and sanctioned by, sane people. For the alarming majority, defection is a function of greed or a reaction to perceived injustice. That’s one. Two, just as Nigerians who fought and ran away to live to fight another day for democracy boast about the NADECO route, today, politicians must know about the Goodluck Jonathan route out. It is the way you would take when you toy with small no be sick fires during your first term in office.
Last Thursday, one of the quietest senators of Nigeria, of the world, really, Chief Nelson Effiong of Akwa Ibom South, sneaked into historic front page news when he defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), just like that! For the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), this is an Akwa Ibom first. As politics goes, especially on the ground in that state, this might only be a storm in a tea cup. But it’s one storm that can break the cup and snowball into a tsunami, if the one man targeted by this defection does not see it as the writing on the wall that it is, and swing into action. I shall come back to the man, presently.
Meanwhile, let’s look again at the epochal defection, ‘with the eyes of a big man.’ As stated at the opening, defections in Nigeria are advised either by naked greed or pure injustice, or both. Of course, as with everything political, it’s difficult to know which is which in Sen. Effiong’s case. Are his 2019 fears that the powers-that-be have already made up their minds to replace him genuine and cogent enough? Conversely, are counter-claims by his constituents that the senator has hardly been responsive and responsible (a political euphemism for inability to perform or service one’s ‘structure’) weighty enough to have led to his total alienation?
Whatever answers we may concoct would only be tantamount to, or as effective as, medicine after death. Still, for purposes of nipping such occurrences in the bud as well as carrying society along on this developing story, this academic exercise must subsist. While the reason for the Akwa Ibom State House of Assembly former Speaker’s decision to jump ship may no longer matter, the point must be made that this is one defection that was bound to happen. In fact, it is even a wonder that it took so long. Nigerian politicians can kill, once their interest is threatened. A typically imperturbable Nelson exploded with uncanny tigritude and went for the kill because he perceived plans to replace his bread with stone.
However, his defection has gone beyond him. The senatorial desertion mess is now a governorship responsibility both to clear up and to halt attempts by others to follow the Nelson Effiong example. Enter Governor Udom Emmanuel, a banking chieftain drafted into political and leadership management. Not only is he quite significant in this matter because he is Nelson’s state chief executive but the man was, still is, his senator. These are interesting times in Akwa Ibom. While Nigeria watches anxiously in mischievous excitement whether this culminates in a tragedy or comedy would depend plus and minus on Gov. Emmanuel’s political dexterity.
Udom’s exact-same savvy, with which he navigated the turbulent waters of the Nigerian banking industry all the way to higher shores should put him in good standing for what promises to be a long, tumultuous, betrayal-laden walk to 2019. With this understanding, Sen. Effiong’s effrontery to dine with the ‘enemy,’ at least for the next two years, can be appreciated as a precursor that has double-edged potentialities. When deftly handled as the wake-up call that it is, it would show off the first term governor as a strong leader and crisis manager deserving of a second term, the very thing the defection set out to dent. But, if as is the wont of political chief executives, the defection is dismissed as child’s play, it could turn up as an anathema. A first-term governor should choose the first option; in which are embedded wisdom, strength and a second term!
Since this is the last bend, let’s tie up some loose ends. One, the first lesson of it all is that people should be careful of their actions and words. Between 1999 and 2015, PDP allowed too much impunity. If seeds of office holders abandoning the very ladders that afforded their ‘borrowed’ climb had not been wantonly sown, watered and harvested by the party during its presidential heyday, there’s no way the so-called largest political party in Africa would be this ‘raped’ in broad daylight by a man it has been extremely good to. Yet, the man and foot soldiers of the governor should also watch it. While he might have written his political dirge, there’s no need to hurry a ‘burial’ by way of horrible media backlash; because the way these things work, we could post-2019 witness the governor and this same senator holding hands, laughing out loud and whispering political sweet-nothings to each other.
Finally, there’s a set of twin strategies that can be deployed to forestall some of these political somersaults. The first is to re-engineer our leadership recruitment process and allow leaders to be thrown up by the people rather than by a godfather. The difference here, and it’s a huge difference, is that while the people look for competence, the godfather almost always chooses loyalty ahead of even qualification, track record and suitability. The day candidates are picked by the people, not a godfather, so-called representatives of the people would stop running to another political party without giving a hoot about the mandate owners. For instance, in Sen. Effiong’s case, do the good people of Akwa Ibom South want their man in PDP or APC? The 2019 senatorial election shall give birth to that answer. The second strategy is to ensure justice at all times. People should work hard to get into office, and no one should deny office holders their rights and privileges. Let it be noted that an occupant who strolls into an office spends the tenure in scorn (from the electorate or political chieftains) and suffers permanent inferiority complex. Both ways, even the flimsiest misunderstanding could set off bitter divorces like this. My last word here is that, since what has happened has happened, Gov. Emmanuel should prayerfully restrategise and relaunch. It’s the best way to steady a ship when the Master is not on board to calm the storm. God bless Nigeria!
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